BCS Rankings Week 12: 1-Loss Teams That Have Best Chance for Title Game

A one-loss team will be in the BCS National Championship Game if Oklahoma State loses once in their next two games. These three teams are the only three one-loss teams that should have a realistic shot of making the title game. Here is how I rate their chances.

 

Oklahoma

If only the Sooners would have lost to a ranked opponent then maybe they would have a better shot than the only two schools I will list. But instead they lose to Texas Tech, 41-38, on their home field.

They shouldn’t be considered in the top three with that victory even if they defeat Oklahoma State at the end of the season. There is no logical excuse to lose to a team that is 5-5 overall and 2-5 in the conference. It is truly inexcusable.

Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners blew their chance at making it to the national championship game just like they seem to do every season. They should and will be punished for their loss at home, and they won’t ever be in the top three this season.

But we must remember that we are dealing with computers. Who knows how the computers will rank Oklahoma if they beat Oklahoma State? It shouldn’t be good enough to push them to the title game, but never underestimate the BCS computers.

Chances: 20 percent

Alabama

If LSU can win the SEC Championship Game and move to the title game, Alabama should be considered heavily for their opponent in the national title game.

They dropped the ball at home against LSU, but they only lost 9-6. They had a plethora of opportunities but turned the ball over twice and missed four field goals.

Losing to the best team in the nation in overtime by three points is nothing to be ashamed of. I’m sure Nick Saban believes he could have and should have got the victory, but maybe next time?

Alabama plays Georgia Southern and Auburn to finish their season. Although these are two winnable games they don’t exactly look sharp on a schedule.

Losing at home is much more hurtful than losing on the road or on a neutral field. Alabama should get punished for losing in front of their fans.

Chances: 30 percent

 

Oregon

The Ducks have the best chance of any one-loss squad of making the BCS National Championship Game. Their only loss of the season was against LSU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, 40-27.

They are the only team to score more than 21 points on the Tigers in 2011. If it wasn’t for mistakes, Oregon would have been not only in the game but easily should have won.

LSU held the Ducks to 95 rushing yards total. That is 200 yards less than their season average. LSU held them to 19 points less than what the Ducks average.

It wouldn’t happen again.

Oregon is a completely different team at this stage of the season. They have won nine games in a row by more than 14 points including a thrashing at Stanford Stadium against No. 4 Stanford.

This team is the real deal. They got the experience of playing the BCS Championship Game last year, they got the coaching and they got the talent to keep up with LSU. If any team can match up against LSU speed and talent wise it is the Ducks.

Chances: 70 percent